Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 11.723990 13.418797 15.243490 17.350521 19.712805 22.275801 25.263223
2025-07-20 9.272441 11.579513 14.255130 17.572888 21.560743 26.183136 31.928986
2025-07-27 7.907408 10.448522 13.539715 17.549653 22.583515 28.660687 36.516173
2025-08-03 6.766967 9.415175 12.779384 17.323986 23.253700 30.673449 40.597240
2025-08-10 5.986399 8.711832 12.306492 17.334082 24.112772 32.854561 44.884718
2025-08-17 5.403833 8.194194 12.002362 17.498355 25.129624 35.238417 49.504651
2025-08-24 4.856065 7.655425 11.600571 17.463471 25.828921 37.187148 53.590316
2025-08-31 4.357204 7.129512 11.157981 17.312964 26.322844 38.841319 57.311213
2025-09-07 3.996990 6.770467 10.916453 17.414506 27.151625 40.966798 61.748007
2025-09-14 3.781631 6.611198 10.951309 17.911970 28.563549 43.961407 67.525120
2025-09-21 3.432238 6.201927 10.565636 17.732939 28.940419 45.455298 71.175810
2025-09-28 2.986044 5.588672 9.807265 16.912235 28.276438 45.359625 72.453531
2025-10-05 2.831486 5.461128 9.827828 17.340126 29.586928 48.307183 78.451548
2025-10-12 2.668011 5.302604 9.783988 17.657272 30.735471 51.056689 84.267458
2025-10-19 2.455797 5.034398 9.530297 17.600602 31.264225 52.850236 88.659524
2025-10-26 2.239191 4.736304 9.199752 17.385917 31.511445 54.197210 92.390825
2025-11-02 2.077978 4.526901 9.007584 17.391981 32.117143 56.128523 97.108161
2025-11-09 1.954328 4.378346 8.912354 17.558180 32.995359 58.527412 102.657210
2025-11-16 1.814140 4.182747 8.714175 17.522686 33.515805 60.348881 107.321713
2025-11-23 1.671966 3.968746 8.463862 17.371901 33.818502 61.808579 111.429803
2025-11-30 1.572311 3.834170 8.354865 17.473688 34.568992 64.043516 116.899723
2025-12-07 1.524546 3.806988 8.453627 17.972676 36.057497 67.591478 124.705374
2025-12-14 1.407675 3.615545 8.209324 17.793098 36.287406 68.962993 128.833749